| dataset_desc |
Longevity in Asia-Pacific Populations” is a compre Longevity in Asia-Pacific Populations” is a comprehensive analytical presentation examining how mortality patterns, demographic shifts, and socio-economic changes across Asia-Pacific countries compare to Europe and North America. Using Human Mortality Database data, global socio-economic indicators, and three major industry mortality models (CMI, AG, and MIM), the study evaluates both historical trends and future mortality projections for key APAC populations.
Mark Woods (Canada Life Re) shows that Asia-Pacific mortality improvements have been among the strongest in the world, with Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan now competing with or surpassing Western nations in life expectancy—especially for women. The analysis highlights how demographic aging, economic transitions, healthcare reforms, and cohort-specific phenomena (such as the “golden cohort”) shape longevity outcomes across the region.
The document reveals that although APAC populations share some global drivers of mortality improvement, each country’s trajectory is unique, influenced by distinct socio-economic history, health systems, and risk exposures. The COVID-19 period introduced additional complexity: some APAC countries showed little early excess mortality, while others experienced delayed effects compared with Western regions.
Finally, the study demonstrates that mortality model selection strongly affects future projections and the valuation of pensions and annuities, producing significant differences in expected mortality improvements across APAC countries through 2030.
🔍 Key Insights
1. Asia-Pacific vs Europe/North America
APAC countries such as Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea display exceptionally light mortality, especially among females.
Longevity in asia pacific popul…
New Zealand has rapidly improved from high-mortality levels to among the lightest in the dataset.
The U.S. now has heavier mortality than most APAC peers.
2. Demographic Dynamics
All APAC nations are aging, but Japan and South Korea are experiencing the fastest demographic aging in the world.
Longevity in asia pacific popul…
Hong Kong and Taiwan saw rapid earlier growth in younger populations.
Average age differences across countries have narrowed dramatically over recent decades.
3. Socio-Economic Drivers
HDI (Human Development Index), education levels, and income growth correlate strongly with mortality improvements.
Longevity in asia pacific popul…
Korea and Hong Kong have shown extraordinary upward socio-economic mobility.
Japan has experienced plateauing trends due to long-run economic stagnation.
4. Mortality Trends & Heatmaps
Heatmaps show consistent cohort effects, including:
the Golden Cohort (1930s births) with exceptional survivorship
country-specific shocks: Japan’s economic crisis, suicide rates, and “karoshi”; the U.S. opioid crisis.
Longevity in asia pacific popul…
Asian female mortality improvements have been steadier than Western countries.
5. Model Comparisons (CMI, AG, MIM)
Mortality projections differ substantially depending on the model:
CMI uses population-specific smoothing with long-term convergence.
AG uses a multi-population structure linking APAC to European baselines.
MIM relies on Whittaker–Henderson smoothing without cohort effects.
Longevity in asia pacific popul…
These methodological differences produce wide variation in future mortality levels.
6. Projected Mortality by 2030
Expected mortality improvement from 2020–2030 ranges widely across APAC countries:
Japan and Hong Kong: modest further improvements
Taiwan, New Zealand, Korea: substantial projected gains
Female gains generally exceed male gains
Longevity in asia pacific popul…
7. Impact on Pensions & Annuities
Valuation results differ materially by model:
Annuity present values can vary ±5% or more depending solely on projection methodology.
Longevity in asia pacific popul…
This sensitivity underscores the financial significance of model selection for insurers and pension schemes.
8. Post-2019 Experience
APAC showed:
Little or no excess mortality early in the pandemic (e.g., Australia, New Zealand)
Later and milder mortality excesses than Europe/US
Some evidence of recovery toward expected trends
Longevity in asia pacific popul…
🧭 Overall Essence
This is one of the most detailed comparative explorations of APAC longevity trends to date. It demonstrates that Asia-Pacific populations have rapidly converged toward or surpassed Western longevity levels, but future outcomes remain highly sensitive to model choice, demographic pressure, and evolving health dynamics. For actuaries and insurers, these findings carry major implications for pricing, reserving, and long-term risk management.... |