| id |
1c39c4ad-acbf-4b69-8902-960d7918d5a7 |
| user_id |
8684964a-bab1-4235-93a8-5fd5e24a1d0a |
| job_id |
gbsjziqy-6720 |
| base_model_name |
xevyo |
| base_model_path |
/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-bas /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-base-v1/merged_fp16_hf... |
| model_name |
How has the variance |
| model_desc |
How has the variance of longevity changed ? |
| model_path |
/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/gbsjziqy- /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/gbsjziqy-6720/merged_fp16_hf... |
| source_model_name |
xevyo |
| source_model_path |
/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-bas /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-base-v1/merged_fp16_hf... |
| source_job_id |
xevyo-base-v1 |
| dataset_desc |
This document is a comprehensive research paper th This document is a comprehensive research paper that examines how the variance of longevity (variation in age at death) has changed across different population groups in the United States over the past several decades. Rather than focusing only on life expectancy, it highlights how unpredictable lifespan is, which is crucial for retirement planning and the value of lifetime income products like annuities.
🔎 Main Purpose of the Study
The core purpose is to analyze:
How lifespan variation has changed from the 1970s to 2019
How differences vary across race, gender, and socioeconomic status (education level)
How changes in lifespan variability influence the economic value of annuities
The authors focus heavily on the implications for retirement planning, longevity risk, and financial security.
🔍 Populations Analyzed
The study evaluates five major groups:
General U.S. population
Annuitants (people who purchase annuities)
White—high education
White—low education
Black—high education
Black—low education
All groups are analyzed separately for men and women, and conditional on survival to ages 50, 62, 67, and 70.
📈 Key Findings (Perfect Summary)
1. Population-level variance has remained stable since the 1970s
Even though life expectancy increased, the spread of ages at death (standard deviation) remained mostly unchanged for the general population.
2. SES and racial disparities in lifespan variation remain large
Black and lower-education individuals have consistently greater lifespan variation.
They face higher risks of both premature death and very late death.
This inequality captures an important dimension of social and economic disadvantage.
3. Different groups show different trends (2000–2019)
Variance increased for almost all groups
→ especially high-education Black and low-education White individuals.
Exception: Low-education Black males
→ They showed a substantial decrease in variability mostly due to reduced premature mortality.
4. Annuitants have less lifespan variation at age 50
Those who purchase annuities tend to be healthier, wealthier, and show less lifespan uncertainty.
However, by age 67, the difference in variation between annuitants and the general population nearly disappears.
💰 Economic Insights: Impact on Annuity Value
Using a lifecycle model, the study calculates wealth equivalence — how much additional wealth a person would need to compensate for losing access to a fair annuity.
Key insight:
Even though longevity variance increased, the value of annuities actually declined over time.
Why?
Because life expectancy increased, delaying mortality credits to older ages — lowering annuity value in economic terms.
Quantitative Findings
A one-year increase in standard deviation → raises annuity value by 6.8% of initial wealth.
A one-year increase in life expectancy → reduces annuity value by 3.1%.
From 2000–2019:
General population saw only a 1.3–2.0% increase in annuity value due to rising variance.
By group:
High-education Black males: +13.6%
Low-education Black males: –6.1%
🔬 Methodology
The study uses:
SSA cohort life tables for the general population
Mortality estimates using NVSS & ACS data for race-education groups
Annuity mortality tables (1971 IAM, 1983 IAM, 2000, 2012 IAM) for annuitants
Lifespan variation measured using standard deviation of age at death (Sx)
Wealth equivalence is computed using a CRRA utility model with full annuitization and actuarially fair payouts.
🧠 Why This Matters
Lifespan uncertainty directly affects:
✔ Retirement planning
✔ Optimal savings behavior
✔ Need for annuities or guaranteed lifetime income
✔ Social welfare policy
Groups with higher lifespan uncertainty benefit more from annuities.
The study’s results emphasize:
Persistent inequalities in mortality patterns
The importance of accessible lifetime income options
The role of policy in addressing retirement security
📌 Perfect One-Sentence Summary
The document shows that while life expectancy has risen, the variance of longevity has remained stable overall but diverged notably across racial and socioeconomic groups, significantly influencing the economic value and importance of annuities in retirement planning.
If you want:
✅ A diagram
✅ A simplified student-friendly summary
✅ A PPT, PDF, or infographic
✅ A comparison table
✅ A visual chart
Just tell me — I can generate it!... |
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| dataset_path |
/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/gbsjziqy- /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/gbsjziqy-6720/data/gbsjziqy-6720.json... |
| training_output |
null |
| status |
completed |
| created_at |
1764891697 |
| updated_at |
1764899216 |
| source_adapter_path |
NULL |
| adapter_path |
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False |