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417543b9-9abe-41c6-95ae-12b85e4beebd |
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8684964a-bab1-4235-93a8-5fd5e24a1d0a |
| job_id |
meuvcaig-6493 |
| base_model_name |
xevyo |
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/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-bas /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-base-v1/merged_fp16_hf... |
| model_name |
humans in 21st century |
| model_desc |
humans in the twenty-first century |
| model_path |
/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/meuvcaig- /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/meuvcaig-6493/merged_fp16_hf... |
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xevyo |
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/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-bas /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-base-v1/merged_fp16_hf... |
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xevyo-base-v1 |
| dataset_desc |
Implausibility of Radical Life Extension in Humans Implausibility of Radical Life Extension in Humans in the Twenty-First Century
Human in 21st century
This study, published in Nature Aging (2024), analyzes real demographic data from the world’s longest-lived populations to determine whether radical human life extension is occurring—or likely to occur—in this century. The authors conclude that radical life extension is not happening and is biologically implausible unless we discover ways to slow biological aging itself, not just treat diseases.
🧠 1. Central Argument
Over the 20th century, life expectancy grew rapidly due to public health and medical advances. But since 1990, improvements in life expectancy have slowed dramatically across all longest-lived nations.
Human in 21st century
The core message:
Unless aging can be biologically slowed, humans are already near the upper limits of natural life expectancy.
Human in 21st century
📉 2. Has Radical Life Extension Happened?
The authors define radical life extension as:
👉 A 0.3-year increase in life expectancy per year (3 years per decade) — similar to gains during the 20th-century longevity revolution.
Using mortality data from 1990–2019 (Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Hong Kong, USA):
🔴 Findings:
Only Hong Kong and South Korea briefly approached this rate (mostly in the 1990s).
Every country shows slowed growth in life expectancy since 2000.
Human in 21st century
The U.S. even experienced declines in life expectancy in recent decades due to midlife mortality.
Human in 21st century
🎯 3. Will Most People Today Reach 100?
The data say no.
Actual probabilities of reaching age 100:
Females: ~5%
Males: ~1.8%
Highest observed: Hong Kong (12.8% females, 4.4% males)
Human in 21st century
Nowhere near the 50% survival to 100 predicted by “radical life extension” futurists.
📊 4. How Hard Is It to Increase Life Expectancy Today?
To add just one year to life expectancy, countries now must reduce mortality at every age by far more than in the past.
Example: For Japanese females (2019):
To go from 88 → 89 years requires
👉 20.3% reduction in death rates at ALL ages.
Human in 21st century
These reductions are increasingly unrealistic using current medical approaches.
🧬 5. Biological & Demographic Constraints
Three demographic signals show humans are approaching biological limits:
A. Life table entropy (H*) is stabilizing
Shows mortality improvements are becoming harder.
Human in 21st century
B. Lifespan inequality (Φ*) is decreasing
Deaths are increasingly compressed into a narrow age window — meaning humans are already dying close to the biological limit.
Human in 21st century
C. Maximum lifespan has stagnated
No increase beyond Jeanne Calment’s record of 122.45 years.
Human in 21st century
Together, these metrics prove that life expectancy gains are slowing because humans are nearing biological constraints—not because progress in medicine has stopped.
🚫 6. What Would Radical Life Extension Require?
The authors create a hypothetical future where life expectancy reaches 110 years.
To achieve this:
70% of females must survive to 100
24% must survive beyond 122.5 (breaking the maximum human lifespan)
6–7% must live to 150
Human in 21st century
This would require:
88% reduction in death rates at every age up to 150
Human in 21st century
This is impossible using only disease treatment. It would require curing most causes of death.
🌍 7. Composite “Best-Case” Mortality Worldwide
The authors compile the lowest death rates ever observed in any country (2019):
Best-case female life expectancy: 88.7 years
Best-case male life expectancy: 83.2 years
Human in 21st century
Even with zero deaths from birth to age 50, life expectancy increases by only one additional year.
Human in 21st century
This shows why further increases are extremely difficult.
🧭 8. Final Conclusions
Radical life extension is not happening in today’s long-lived nations.
Biological and demographic forces limit life expectancy to about 85–90 years for populations.
Survival to 100 will remain rare (around 5–15% for females; 1–5% for males).
Treating diseases alone cannot extend lifespan dramatically.
Only slowing biological aging (geroscience) could meaningfully shift these limits.
Human in 21st century
🌟 Perfect One-Sentence Summary
Humanity is already near the biological limits of life expectancy, and radical life extension in the 21st century is implausible unless science discovers ways to slow the fundamental processes of aging.... |
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