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Expansion of Morbidity – People live longer but sp Expansion of Morbidity – People live longer but spend more years in poor health.
Compression of Morbidity – People live longer and healthier; disability occurs later.
Dynamic Equilibrium – Chronic diseases become more common but less severe due to medical progress.
📌 Main Purpose of the Study
The paper reviews evidence on:
Whether elderly health is improving or worsening over time
How chronic diseases, disability, and functional ability have changed
How these trends affect future healthcare and elderly-care needs
How medical technology, obesity, and lifestyle changes influence health
How future spending on health and social care may evolve
It draws from dozens of empirical studies across the USA, Sweden, the Netherlands, Canada, and other OECD countries.
📚 Key Findings
1. Chronic diseases are increasing
More elderly people are living with chronic conditions (e.g., diabetes, heart disease, hypertension).
People spend a larger share of life with diagnosed illness than earlier generations.
2. BUT: Disabilities and functional limitations are decreasing
Thanks to medical progress, assistive devices, better buildings, and rehabilitation.
People maintain mobility and independence for more years.
3. Elderly are living longer with milder, better-managed diseases
This matches the Dynamic Equilibrium theory:
Greater life expectancy
More years with disease
But less severe disease, better quality of life
Less need for nursing-home care than expected
4. Medical advances, not aging alone, push costs upward
New technologies extend life and treat disease, but also increase costs.
5. Obesity is a major future threat
Rising obesity may reverse some health gains
Increases diabetes, disability, and medical spending
Could slow improvements in life expectancy
6. Predictions about future healthcare
Models show:
Health-care spending will rise, not because the elderly are sicker, but because they live longer and use care for more years.
Elderly-care (nursing home) use may decrease or be delayed.
Technology and lifestyle changes strongly influence future cost projections.
🏥 Implications
Elderly will need health care for longer periods.
But may need elderly/social care for shorter periods due to better functional health.
Governments need better forecasting tools, not simple age-based cost prediction.
Preventive care, obesity control, and innovation are key factors.
🎯 Final Overall Summary
The PDF concludes that aging populations are living longer with chronic diseases that are less severe. Functionality is improving, disability is decreasing, and medical advances are the main driver of cost growth. The overall trend supports the Dynamic Equilibrium scenario rather than pure expansion or compression of morbidity.... |