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7088d7e1-2ada-4e2c-a811-9a5a2e6b1203 |
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8684964a-bab1-4235-93a8-5fd5e24a1d0a |
| job_id |
mevsetwu-8209 |
| base_model_name |
xevyo |
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/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-bas /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-base-v1/merged_fp16_hf... |
| model_name |
The Human Longevity Recor |
| model_desc |
The Human Longevity Record data |
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/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/mevsetwu- /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/mevsetwu-8209/merged_fp16_hf... |
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xevyo |
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/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-bas /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-base-v1/merged_fp16_hf... |
| source_job_id |
xevyo-base-v1 |
| dataset_desc |
“The Human Longevity Record May Hold for Decades” “The Human Longevity Record May Hold for Decades” is a rigorous demographic and statistical analysis examining Jeanne Calment’s world-record lifespan of 122.45 years and assessing whether this record reflects a biological limit to human life or simply an extreme but plausible outlier. Using validated international data on supercentenarians (110+ years), the authors build probability models to determine:
How likely Calment’s lifespan was,
How surprising it is that her record still stands, and
When a new longevity record might realistically be set.
The human longevity record may …
Their conclusion is clear:
Jeanne Calment’s record is extraordinary—but entirely possible—and may not be broken until around 2045 or later.
It does not imply a fixed biological upper limit on human lifespan.
Core Insights
1. Calment’s lifespan is rare but statistically plausible
Assuming the best-available estimate that the probability of death after age 110 is roughly 50% per year, the authors calculate:
A person who reaches age 110 has a
17.1% chance of surviving to 122.45.
Out of the 1,049 individuals who reached age 110 before 2017, it is perfectly plausible that one might reach 122.45.
The human longevity record may …
Calment’s age is therefore exceptional, but not biologically “impossible.”
2. It is not surprising that her record still stands
Using data from validated supercentenarian lists (IDL and GRG), the authors estimate:
On the day of her death (1997), there was only a 20.3% chance her record would be broken by 2017.
The human longevity record may …
This means:
There was an 80% chance her record would still stand today—exactly what we observe.
So the absence of a new record does not suggest we are hitting a biological limit.
3. The record is likely to hold until ~2045
Using growth rates in the number of supercentenarians and assuming mortality plateaus at extreme ages, the authors project:
The number of new supercentenarians needed to have a >50% chance of exceeding age 122.45
When those individuals will appear
How long they would need to live to surpass Calment’s age
They estimate:
A new longevity record is unlikely before 2045
provided current mortality patterns hold.
The human longevity record may …
Demographic and Statistical Contributions
1. Mortality Plateaus After Age 110
The study confirms that:
The annual probability of death levels off at ~50% after 110
It does not keep rising exponentially
If mortality did keep rising at normal Gompertz rates (10% increase per year), then Calment’s lifespan would be almost impossible.
But since mortality plateaus, her lifespan fits observed patterns.
The human longevity record may …
2. Extreme-Value Theory Explains Long Record Durations
The authors show that:
Maximum lifespan can remain constant for decades even while average lifespan rises
Long-standing records are normal in extreme-value distributions
Examples:
Delina Filkins’ female record held for 54+ years
Gert Boomgaard’s male record held for 67+ years
The human longevity record may …
Thus, Calment’s long record duration is expected, not anomalous.
3 Key Questions Answered
1. How likely was Calment’s lifespan?
Probability = 17.1% given the number of people reaching 110.
→ Extraordinary but not improbable.
2. How unlikely is it that no one has beaten her record yet?
Probability = 20.3% that the record would have been broken by 2017.
→ Very plausible that it still stands.
3. When will the record likely be broken?
Around 2045 (with wide uncertainty).
→ Her record may last ~56 years—similar to past record durations.
Conclusion
“The Human Longevity Record May Hold for Decades” provides compelling demographic evidence that:
Jeanne Calment’s record is real and statistically plausible
Extreme old-age mortality plateaus, enabling survival into the 120s
The absence of new record-holders is expected—not a sign of a biological limit
The next record may not appear until around 2045
The paper strongly refutes claims that humans are approaching a fixed or imminent maximum lifespan.
Instead, it shows that extreme longevity follows predictable statistical patterns—and Calment’s record fits those patterns perfectly.... |
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