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This PDF is a demographic research bulletin from t This PDF is a demographic research bulletin from the French Institut National d’Études Démographiques (INED) exploring the rise of centenarians, the historical myths surrounding extreme longevity, and the scientific debate about whether maximum human lifespan is increasing. It offers a rich combination of history, statistics, and demographic theory to explain why individuals living past age 100—once seen as legendary or impossible—are becoming increasingly common.
🔶 1. Purpose of the Study
The document investigates:
The validity of historical claims of extreme longevity
Whether recent increases in the maximum age at death reflect true biological changes or simple changes in population size
Whether human longevity has a fixed limit or is still increasing
Why the number of centenarians is rising dramatically in modern societies
Living beyond the age of 100
🔶 2. Historical Perspective: Myth vs. Reality
The bulletin opens by discussing legendary ages found in:
Biblical stories (Methuselah: 969 years)
Folklore about long-lived people in the Caucasus, Andes, or U.S. Georgia
It explains that poor birth records, respectful exaggeration of elders’ ages, and political motivations (e.g., Stalin promoting Georgian longevity myths) created many false claims.
Modern validation shows these stories were not true, and reliable age verification only became possible in the last few centuries.
Living beyond the age of 100
🔶 3. Verified Extreme Longevity
The study confirms:
Jeanne Calment, France — 122 years (validated)
Kristian Mortensen, USA — 115 years
Numerous modern cases of verified centenarians and supercentenarians
Living beyond the age of 100
These records are the basis of current scientific longevity research.
🔶 4. Evidence of Increasing Longevity
Using Swedish demographic data since 1861, the PDF shows:
The maximum age at death has steadily risen
Women: from 100–105 in the 19th century to 107–112 today
Men: from 97–102 to 103–109
The slope of improvement has become steeper in recent decades
Living beyond the age of 100
Similar trends appear in France, once record-quality limitations are corrected.
🔶 5. Why Are We Seeing More Centenarians?
The rise is explained by two main factors:
✔ Population Expansion
More people reaching age 90 → more potential centenarians.
✔ Declining Mortality at Older Ages
Since the 1960s, mortality rates above age 70 have fallen rapidly, leading to:
More 80-, 90-, and 100-year-olds
Longer life expectancy at older ages
Living beyond the age of 100
For example, in France:
Life expectancy at age 70 increased from ~7–9 years (19th century) to 13 years (1997) for men
Women’s life expectancy at 70 rose from ~8–10 to 17 years
Living beyond the age of 100
🔶 6. Is Human Longevity Increasing or Fixed?
The article presents two major scientific viewpoints:
🧭 Theory 1: Fixed Maximum Lifespan
Supported by Fries and Olshansky
Human lifespan has an upper limit (~85 years average)
Modern gains reflect “rectangularization” of survival curves
People survive longer but die at roughly the same maximum age
🧭 Theory 2: Flexible Maximum Lifespan
Supported by Vaupel, Carey, Vallin
Maximum lifespan has increased through human evolution
Nothing proves that human longevity cannot continue to rise
Some species show negligible aging—suggesting biological flexibility
Living beyond the age of 100
The PDF does not side definitively with either one, but presents evidence that recent trends challenge the “fixed limit” idea.
🔶 7. A Centenarian Boom
The growth is dramatic:
France had ~200 centenarians in 1950
By 1998: 6,840
Projected for 2050: 150,000 centenarians
Living beyond the age of 100
Women dominate this group:
At age 100: 1 man for every 7 women
At age 104: 1 man for every 10 women
Living beyond the age of 100
The PDF also introduces the category of supercentenarians (110+ years) and the challenges of verifying ages in this group.
🔶 8. Why This Study Is Important
The document offers:
One of the clearest historical explanations of how perceptions of longevity changed
A scientific framework for understanding the rise of centenarians
Evidence that lifespan trends at advanced ages are accelerating
A foundation for future demographic and biological research
It raises the central question:
👉 Are we witnessing a temporary statistical artifact, or the start of a true biological extension of human longevity?
⭐ Perfect One-Sentence Summary
This PDF explains how verified human longevity—once extremely rare—has risen dramatically due to declining mortality at older ages, improved record-keeping, and demographic changes, while exploring whether the maximum human lifespan is fixed or still increasing.... |