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99f8913c-f568-4e6c-af30-06ce594c932e |
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8684964a-bab1-4235-93a8-5fd5e24a1d0a |
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zgnfbvmb-7086 |
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xevyo |
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| model_name |
Effects of longevity |
| model_desc |
Effects of longevity and mortality |
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xevyo |
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| source_job_id |
xevyo-base-v1 |
| dataset_desc |
Mugi: Effects of Mortality and Longevity Risk in R Mugi: Effects of Mortality and Longevity Risk in Risk Management in Life Insurance Companies is a clear and rigorous exploration of how mortality risk (people dying earlier than expected) and longevity risk (people living longer than expected) affect the financial stability, pricing, reserving, and strategic management of life insurance companies. The report explains why longevity—usually celebrated from a public health perspective—creates serious financial challenges for insurers, pension funds, and annuity providers.
The central message:
As people live longer, life insurance companies face rising liabilities, growing uncertainty, and the need for advanced risk-management tools to remain solvent and competitive.
🧩 Core Themes & Insights
1. Mortality vs. Longevity Risk
The paper distinguishes two opposing risks:
Mortality Risk (Life insurance)
People die earlier than expected → insurers pay out death benefits sooner → financial losses.
Longevity Risk (Annuities & Pensions)
People live longer than expected → insurers must keep paying benefits for more years → liabilities increase.
Longevity risk is now the dominant threat as global life expectancy rises.
2. Why Longevity Risk Is Growing
The study highlights several forces:
Continuous declines in mortality
Medical advances extending life
Rising survival at older ages
Uncertainty in future mortality trends
Rapid global population aging
For insurers offering annuities, pension guarantees, or long-term products, this creates a systemic, long-horizon risk that is difficult to hedge.
3. Impact on Life Insurance Companies
Longevity risk affects insurers in multiple ways:
A. Pricing & Product Design
Annuities become more expensive to offer
Guarantees become riskier
Traditional actuarial assumptions become outdated faster
B. Reserving & Capital Requirements
Companies must hold larger technical reserves
Regulators impose stricter solvency requirements
Balance sheets become more volatile
C. Profitability & Shareholder Value
Longer lifespans → higher liabilities → reduced profit margins unless risks are hedged.
4. Tools to Manage Longevity Risk
The paper reviews modern strategies used globally:
A. Longevity Swaps
Transfer longevity exposure to reinsurers or investors.
B. Longevity Bonds / Mortality-Linked Securities
Payments tied to survival rates; spreads risk to capital markets.
C. Reinsurance
Traditional method for offloading part of the risk.
D. Hedging Through Natural Offsets
Balancing life insurance (benefits paid when people die early) with annuities (benefits paid when people live long).
E. Improving Mortality Modeling
Using:
Lee–Carter models
Stochastic mortality models
Scenario stress testing
Cohort analysis
Accurate forecasting is critical—even small misestimates of future mortality can cost insurers billions.
5. Risk Management Framework
A strong longevity risk program includes:
identifying exposures
assessing potential solvency impacts
using internal models
scenario analysis (e.g., “life expectancy improves by +3 years”)
hedging and reinsurance
regulatory capital alignment
The goal is maintaining solvency under a variety of demographic futures.
6. Global Context
Countries with rapidly aging populations (Japan, Western Europe, China) face the strongest longevity pressures.
Regulators worldwide are:
requiring better capital buffers
encouraging transparency
exploring longevity-linked capital market instruments
🧭 Overall Conclusion
Longevity, though positive for individuals and society, represents a major financial uncertainty for life insurers. Rising life expectancy increases long-term liabilities and challenges traditional actuarial models. To remain stable, life insurance companies must adopt modern risk-transfer tools, advanced mortality modeling, diversified product portfolios, and robust solvency management.
The paper positions longevity risk as one of the most critical issues for the future of global insurance and pension systems.... |
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| dataset_path |
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| status |
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1764876697 |
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1764884717 |
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