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“Mortality and Longevity: A Risk Management Perspe “Mortality and Longevity: A Risk Management Perspective”**
This PDF is a research chapter that examines mortality and longevity through the lens of risk management, particularly focusing on how insurance companies, pension funds, and governments measure, manage, and respond to the financial risks created by changing mortality patterns and increasing life expectancy. It combines demographic analysis, actuarial science, economics, and risk-transfer mechanisms to explain why longevity is one of the most significant financial risks of the 21st century.
The core message:
Falling mortality and rising longevity create large, long-term financial risks—and risk management tools are essential for sustainable pensions, insurance systems, and public finances.
📘 Purpose of the Chapter
The chapter aims to:
Explain mortality and longevity as quantitative risks
Explore causes of uncertainty in life expectancy predictions
Show how longevity affects pensions, annuities, and insurance
Discuss risk-transfer and hedging tools (e.g., longevity bonds, swaps)
Evaluate forecasting models and the limits of prediction
Provide a framework for managing longevity risk at institutional and national levels
It positions longevity risk as a major concern for aging societies.
🧠 Core Themes and Key Insights
1. Mortality and Longevity Are Risk Events
Death rates change over time due to:
Medical breakthroughs
Public health interventions
Lifestyle improvements
Pandemics (e.g., COVID-19)
Environmental exposures
These shifts create uncertainty for insurers and pension managers who must make long-term commitments.
2. Longevity Risk: People Live Longer Than Expected
Longevity risk occurs when:
Actual survival rates exceed forecasts
People claim pensions and annuities for more years
Retirement systems face funding shortfalls
Even small reductions in mortality can create large financial liabilities.
3. Mortality Risk: People Die Earlier Than Expected
Mortality risk matters for:
Life insurance payouts
Health systems
National demographic planning
Pandemics, disasters, or rising chronic disease can shift mortality patterns abruptly.
4. Why Mortality Forecasts Are Uncertain
The chapter explains key sources of uncertainty:
Epidemiological surprises
Social and behavioral change
Medical innovation
Environmental shocks
Cohort effects
Structural breaks (e.g., opioid crisis, pandemics)
Because of these factors, mortality forecasting is probabilistic, not deterministic.
5. How Mortality Is Modeled
The PDF outlines major models used in actuarial science:
Stochastic mortality models (e.g., Lee–Carter)
Cohort-based models
Multi-factor mortality models
Survival curves and hazard rates
Stress-testing approaches
The chapter also discusses the strengths and weaknesses of each method.
6. Longevity Risk in Pensions and Annuities
The text describes how rising life expectancy affects:
Defined benefit pension plans
Public pension systems
Private annuity providers
Key issues include:
Underfunding
Mispricing
Increased liabilities
Long-term sustainability challenges
Longevity risk is especially critical where populations are aging rapidly.
7. Tools for Managing and Transferring Longevity Risk
The chapter examines modern financial tools designed to hedge risk:
A. Longevity swaps
Transfer longevity risk from pension funds to reinsurers.
B. Longevity bonds
Securities whose payments depend on survival rates of a population.
C. Reinsurance
Sharing mortality and longevity exposures with global reinsurers.
D. Capital-market instruments
Mortality-linked derivatives, q-forwards, etc.
The chapter explains pricing principles, benefits, and limitations.
8. Policy and Regulatory Implications
Governments face:
Rising pension costs
Uncertainty about retirement age policy
Challenges to social security systems
Need for improved health and long-term care planning
Better mortality forecasting is vital for:
Public finance planning
Social insurance design
Intergenerational equity
9. Pandemics and Mortality Risk
The PDF highlights pandemics (including COVID-19) as major mortality shocks:
They temporarily reverse longevity gains
They increase volatility in mortality models
They highlight the need for robust scenario-based risk management
⭐ Overall Summary
“Mortality and Longevity: A Risk Management Perspective” provides a comprehensive framework for understanding mortality and longevity as financial risks. It explains why predicting life expectancy is uncertain, how longevity risk threatens pension and insurance systems, and what tools can be used to manage and transfer these risks. The chapter concludes that effective risk management is essential to ensure the long-term sustainability of retirement systems in aging societies.... |