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This study investigates the impact of energy pover This study investigates the impact of energy poverty on life expectancy in Nigeria over the period from 1981 to 2023. Utilizing time series data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research examines both short-run and long-run effects, revealing a statistically significant negative relationship between energy poverty and life expectancy. The study emphasizes the critical role of energy access as a determinant of public health and longevity, urging policy reforms to improve energy infrastructure and accessibility in Nigeria to enhance health outcomes and sustainable development.
Key Concepts
Term Definition/Explanation
Life Expectancy Average number of years a newborn is expected to live, given current sex- and age-specific mortality rates.
Energy Poverty Lack of access to affordable, reliable, and clean energy services, including electricity and clean cooking fuels.
ARDL Model An econometric technique used to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships in time series data.
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) United Nations goals, including Goal 3 (Health and Well-being) and Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy).
Background and Context
Nigeria faces a persistent energy crisis, with about 43% of the population (86 million people) lacking access to reliable and modern energy.
Life expectancy in Nigeria is significantly lower than the global average, estimated at 54.9 years for women and 54.3 years for men, compared to global averages of 76 and 70.7 years respectively.
Energy poverty in Nigeria manifests through:
Limited electricity access.
Dependence on biomass and kerosene for cooking.
Frequent power outages affecting households, hospitals, and public infrastructure.
Existing government policies (e.g., National Health Policy, Renewable Energy Master Plan) have not sufficiently improved energy access or life expectancy.
Life expectancy is a key indicator of national development and is strongly influenced by socioeconomic and infrastructural factors.
Theoretical Framework
The study is grounded in Human Capital Theory (Schultz, Becker), which posits that investments in health, education, and other social services enhance individual productivity and contribute to overall economic growth and well-being.
Access to modern energy is viewed as a critical enabler of:
Health services.
Clean environments.
Improved living standards.
Energy poverty undermines health by increasing exposure to harmful fuels and limiting access to healthcare, thereby shortening life expectancy.
Empirical Literature Highlights
Roy (2025): Clean energy access significantly increases life expectancy globally.
Olise (2025): Kerosene positively affects quality of life in Nigeria in the short and long run; premium motor spirit negatively affects life expectancy; electricity consumption had no significant impact.
Onisanwa et al. (2024): Socioeconomic factors including income, education, urbanization, and environmental degradation determine life expectancy in Nigeria.
Fan et al. (2024): Energy poverty adversely affects public health, especially in developed regions.
Abu & Orisa-Couple (2022): Unsafe energy sources (kerosene, generators) cause burns and mortality in Port Harcourt.
Okorie & Lin (2022): Energy poverty increases risk of catastrophic health expenditure among Nigerian households.
Onwube et al. (2021): Real GDP per capita, household consumption, and exchange rates positively influence life expectancy; inflation and imports have negative effects.
Data and Methodology
Data: Annual time series data (1981-2023) from World Bank’s World Development Indicators and Global Database of Inflation.
Variables:
Variable Description Expected Sign
LFE Life expectancy at birth Dependent
EPOV Energy poverty (access to electricity and clean cooking fuels) Negative (β1 < 0)
GDPK GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) Positive (β2 > 0)
GHEX Government health expenditure per capita Positive (β3 > 0)
PVL Prevalence of undernourishment (%) Negative (β4 < 0)
LTR Literacy rate (secondary school enrollment %) Positive (β5 > 0)
Econometric Approach:
Stationarity tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests.
Cointegration tested via ARDL Bounds testing.
Short-run and long-run relationships estimated using ARDL and Error Correction Model (ECM).
Descriptive Statistics
Variable Mean Min Max Std. Dev Notes
Life Expectancy (LFE) 48.78 yrs 45.49 yrs 54.59 yrs 2.87 Moderate variability over time
Energy Poverty (EPOV) 52.59% 28.20% 86.10% 13.60 Volatile energy poverty environment
GDP per capita (GDPK) $1922.55 $1408.21 $2679.56 466.60 Modest economic growth
Govt. Health Expenditure (GHEX) $6.73 $0.30 $15.84 5.62 Low health spending
Prevalence of Undernourishment (PVL) 10.61% 6.50% 19.00% 2.68 Moderate food insecurity
Literacy Rate (LTR) 33.31% 17.41% 54.88% 9.79 Low to moderate literacy
Correlation Matrix Summary
Positive moderate correlation with life expectancy: GDP per capita (0.651), government health expenditure (0.598), literacy rate (0.434).
Negative correlation: Energy poverty (-0.450).
Low correlation: Prevalence of undernourishment (0.333).
Unit Root and Cointegration Tests
Energy poverty (EPOV) stationary at level (I(0)).
Life expectancy (LFE), GDP per capita (GDPK), government health expenditure (GHEX), prevalence of undernourishment (PVL), and literacy rate (LTR) stationary at first difference (I(1)).
ARDL Bounds test confirmed cointegration, indicating a stable long-run relationship between energy poverty and life expectancy.
Regression Results
Variable Short-Run Coefficient Significance Long-Run Coefficient Significance Interpretation
Energy Poverty (EPOV) -0.299 Significant -0.699 Highly significant Energy poverty reduces life expectancy both short and long term; effect stronger over time.
GDP per capita (GDPK) 0.026 Insignificant 0.332 Significant Economic growth positively affects life expectancy, especially in the long run.
Govt. Health Expenditure (GHEX) 0.071 Significant -0.054 Insignificant Short-run benefits of health spending on life expectancy, but no significant long-run effect.
Prevalence of Undernourishment (PVL) -0.377 Significant -0.225 Significant Food insecurity negatively impacts life expectancy both short and long term.
Literacy Rate (LTR) 0.003 Insignificant 0.044 Marginal Positive but insignificant effect on life expectancy.
Error Correction Term -0.077 Highly significant Not specified Not specified Adjusts 77% of deviation from equilibrium each year, confirming model stability.
Diagnostic and Stability Tests
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroskedasticity test, and Ramsey RESET test showed no serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, or misspecification—indicating a robust model.
CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirmed no structural breaks or parameter instability in the model over the study period.
Timeline of Key Trends (1981–2023)
Period Life Expectancy Trend Energy Poverty Trend Key Events/Context
1981–1995 Below 46.7 years, stagnant Increasing energy poverty Structural Adjustment era, economic challenges
1999–2003 Slight increase to ~47.2 years Fluctuations in energy poverty Transition to civilian rule, policy shifts
2003–2023 Gradual sustained increase to 54.6 years Sharp surge in energy poverty from 2010 onward Population growth, poor infrastructure, subsidy removal
Policy Recommendations
Prioritize Energy Sector Reforms:
Expand on-grid power generation and improve transmission and distribution infrastructure.
Promote affordable off-grid renewable energy solutions and clean cooking technologies.
Stabilize energy prices and enhance reliability of energy supply.
Increase and Improve Public Health Expenditure:
Boost healthcare infrastructure and access.
Implement institutional reforms to reduce corruption and improve resource allocation.
Address Food Insecurity:
Develop coordinated agricultural, nutritional, and welfare policies to reduce undernourishment.
Focus on Rural and Underserved Communities:
Target energy access expansion to marginalized populations to improve health and longevity.
Integrate Energy Policy with Health and Development Goals:
Align energy access initiatives with Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 3 and SDG 7).
Core Insights
Energy poverty significantly undermines life expectancy in Nigeria, with stronger effects observed over the long term.
Economic growth has a positive but delayed impact on life expectancy.
Public health expenditure improves life expectancy in the short run but shows diminished long-run effectiveness, likely due to governance challenges.
Food insecurity consistently reduces life expectancy.
Literacy improvements have a positive but statistically insignificant influence on longevity.
The relationship between energy poverty and life expectancy in Nigeria has remained stable over four decades despite policy efforts.
Keywords
Energy Poverty, Life Expectancy, Nigeria, ARDL Model, Sustainable Development Goals, Public Health, Economic Growth, Food Insecurity, Human Capital Theory.
Conclusion
This comprehensive empirical analysis confirms that energy poverty is a critical and persistent barrier to improving life expectancy in Nigeria. The negative impact of inadequate access to modern energy services on health outcomes necessitates urgent policy attention. Sustainable improvements in longevity will require integrated strategies that combine energy reforms, enhanced public health spending, food security measures, and economic growth, underpinned by strong institutional governance. Addressing energy poverty is not only vital for health but also essential for Nigeria’s broader development and achievement of international sustainability targets.
Smart Summary
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