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f43c3df4-1c53-4e15-8e53-b4860ba73d9d |
| user_id |
8684964a-bab1-4235-93a8-5fd5e24a1d0a |
| job_id |
umkokurv-2950 |
| base_model_name |
xevyo |
| base_model_path |
/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-bas /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-base-v1/merged_fp16_hf... |
| model_name |
LONGEVITY RISK |
| model_desc |
LONGEVITY RISK |
| model_path |
/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/umkokurv- /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/umkokurv-2950/merged_fp16_hf... |
| source_model_name |
xevyo |
| source_model_path |
/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-bas /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/xevyo-base-v1/merged_fp16_hf... |
| source_job_id |
xevyo-base-v1 |
| dataset_desc |
“Longevity Risk: An Essay” is a detailed special r “Longevity Risk: An Essay” is a detailed special report by Karolos Arapakis and Gal Wettstein from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. The paper examines the growing challenge of longevity risk—the possibility that individuals may live longer than expected and exhaust their retirement savings.
The essay is structured around three major themes:
1. How Individuals Perceive Their Life Expectancy
The paper reviews research on how people estimate their own lifespan and highlights that individuals often underestimate the probability of living to very old ages. This subjective misperception can lead to poor retirement planning, under-saving, and greater vulnerability to longevity risk. The authors also discuss variations by demographic factors such as education, income, and race.
31 LONGEVITY RISK AN ESSAY
They further explore how events such as the COVID-19 pandemic influence both objective and perceived mortality.
31 LONGEVITY RISK AN ESSAY
2. Strategies to Manage Longevity Risk
The essay outlines several ways individuals try to protect themselves from outliving their assets:
Self-insurance, such as precautionary savings, following withdrawal rules (like the 4% rule), or relying on home equity.
31 LONGEVITY RISK AN ESSAY
Institutional protections, especially Social Security, which functions as an inflation-indexed life annuity.
31 LONGEVITY RISK AN ESSAY
Formal insurance options, including annuities and tontines, which pool risk among many individuals.
The paper notes that many popular self-insurance strategies are flawed — for example, only spending investment returns exposes retirees to market volatility and may result in overly low consumption.
31 LONGEVITY RISK AN ESSAY
3. Why Individuals Do Not Buy More Annuities (The Annuity Puzzle)
Although economic theory predicts widespread annuitization, real-world demand for private annuities is very low. The essay categorizes explanations into two groups:
Rational reasons
Desire to leave bequests
Adverse selection (longer-lived people prefer annuities, raising prices)
Liquidity needs and fear of late-life medical shocks
Crowd-out from Social Security benefits
31 LONGEVITY RISK AN ESSAY
Behavioral reasons
Present bias
Misunderstanding of survival probabilities
Viewing annuities as investments rather than insurance (“framing effect”)
31 LONGEVITY RISK AN ESSAY
The essay includes results from new surveys of retirement investors and financial advisors, showing:
Advisors are concerned about clients outliving savings but rarely recommend annuities.
31 LONGEVITY RISK AN ESSAY
Many individuals value annuities more than their market price, but logistical, psychological, and informational barriers hinder purchase.
31 LONGEVITY RISK AN ESSAY
Conclusion
The essay concludes that improving understanding of subjective longevity expectations, advisor behavior, and real-world barriers to annuitization is crucial for developing better retirement solutions. It highlights significant remaining gaps in the literature, especially regarding subjective tail risks and practical impediments to purchasing guaranteed lifetime income.
31 LONGEVITY RISK AN ESSAY
If you'd like, I can also create:
✔ a short summary
✔ a bullet-point version
✔ a quiz based on this file
✔ or combine summaries of multiple files you uploaded.... |
| dataset_meta |
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| dataset_path |
/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/umkokurv- /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/umkokurv-2950/data/umkokurv-2950.json... |
| training_output |
null |
| status |
queued |
| created_at |
1765222791 |
| updated_at |
1765223308 |
| source_adapter_path |
NULL |
| adapter_path |
/home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/umkokurv- /home/sid/tuning/finetune/backend/output/umkokurv-2950/adapter... |
| plugged_in |
False |